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Quantifying the Unquantifiable: Why Empirical Research on India’s Insolvency Tribunals Keeps Running Into Walls

I. Abstract

Anyone who has tried to study how well India’s insolvency tribunals actually perform quickly encounters a frustrating paradox: the questions that matter most to policymakers are precisely the ones the available data makes hardest to answer. This article maps the structural, institutional, and technical barriers, from non-standardised reporting conventions to a dysfunctional tribunal website, that make rigorous empirical research on the NCLT and NCLAT so difficult. It argues that the resulting data scarcity is not merely an inconvenience for academics but a governance failure with real economic costs.

II. The Paradox at the Heart of Insolvency Research

India’s Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016 was built on a single foundational premise: that creditor confidence depends on predictability. Investors must be able to look at a distressed company and form a reasonable estimate of how much they will recover, and how long recovery will take. The National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT), operationalised on 1 June 2016, is the adjudicating authority through which that predictability is supposed to be delivered.

Evaluating whether the NCLT is delivering on that promise ought to be a straightforward empirical exercise. It is not. As DAKSH observed, both institutions “operate as black-boxes, and their functioning can be difficult to understand, not just for litigants, but even for the lawyers who argue before them.”

III. The NCLT Website: A Case Study in Institutional Opacity

The tribunal’s primary public interface,  the website nclt.gov.in, is the natural starting point for any researcher attempting to build a dataset of proceedings. In practice, it is a source of almost continuous frustration.

The Finance Research Group (FRG) at IGIDR noted explicitly in their dataset documentation that URL links to individual NCLT orders were not provided due to “frequent changes in the links on the NCLT website.”2 Stable URLs are a prerequisite for citability, reproducibility, and longitudinal research. The NCLT’s case status page itself acknowledges a structural discontinuity between data before and after August 2021, requiring researchers to merge two incompatible systems.

The more fundamental problem is format. NCLT orders are uploaded as scanned PDFs, which are image files rather than text-searchable documents. The FRG’s researchers had to “parse the entire order” manually to extract requisite data because the published documents are “not text searchable or machine readable.” As of March 2025, the IBBI’s order repository lists approximately 29,466 NCLT records. Processing even a fraction at the depth required for econometric analysis is beyond the resources of any single research team.

Further, not all orders are published. Interim orders are excluded by design; cases transferred from High Courts are not captured. Any dataset constructed from the official portal therefore systematically undercounts proceedings and the undercounting is non-random. The most contested and procedurally complex cases are precisely those absent from the public record, creating a form of publication bias embedded in the very structure of official data.

IV. The Problem of Non-Standardised Metrics

Even where data is technically available, it cannot be straightforwardly used for comparative analysis because the underlying concepts are not consistently defined. Three problems stand out.

Recovery rate. The most widely cited IBC performance indicator means different things depending on the denominator used. IBBI typically reports recovery as realised amounts as a percentage of admitted financial creditor claims. As of 31 December 2024, this cumulative figure stands at 32.10%3, implying an average creditor haircut of nearly 68 per cent4. Yet IBBI data also shows that the same resolutions

delivered realisations exceeding 170 per cent of liquidation value5, a radically different picture. Both figures are arithmetically correct. Neither, without further context, supports confident policy conclusions. Liquidation value is assessed at the commencement of the CIRP, while recovery occurs at its conclusion, often three or more years later, making the comparison temporally inconsistent and potentially misleading.

Delay. The IBC mandates resolution within 270 days of NCLT admission. As of 31 March 2025, approximately 78 per cent of ongoing CIRP cases have exceeded this threshold. But the 270-day clock does not run uniformly: periods excluded by judicial orders, litigation stays, and adjournments at the parties’ request are supposed to be deducted. In practice, neither the NCLT portal nor IBBI newsletters systematically report these exclusion periods. A researcher measuring delay from admission to resolution therefore measures something systematically different from the legal concept the IBC employs. The two can diverge by months or years6.

Interlocutory applications. CIRP proceedings generate large volumes of interlocutory applications that are counted and reported inconsistently across benches. Some benches assign separate case numbers to them; others treat them as sub-matters. A case appearing as a single proceeding in the NCLT portal may represent dozens of discrete judicial acts spanning several years. Any analysis of “cases disposed” that does not disaggregate these sub-matters risks dramatically overstating institutional throughput.

V. Institutional Reporting Gaps and Structural Barriers

MCA annual reports offer only a high-level snapshot of cases received and disposed at the national level and no bench-level disaggregation, no sectoral breakdown, no information on the nature of disposal. IBBI’s quarterly newsletters are richer, but their categories have changed over time, making year-on-year comparison unreliable. The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance noted the need for “greater clarity in purpose” across the regulatory reporting ecosystem.7 IBBI’s own order repository carries an explicit disclaimer that it “does not authenticate the contents” of the orders it publishes, a remarkable admission from the regulator overseeing the process. These data problems do not arise in a vacuum. The NCLT’s sanctioned strength is 62 members; in September 2021, actual strength had fallen to 28. DAKSH’s Time and Motion Study found that only 64 per cent of sanctioned members were actively presiding during the observation period, and that members frequently failed to sit for the required number of hours.8 Vacancy rates are not evenly distributed across benches or time periods, but this information does not appear in published data. This means that any regression model treating NCLT bench as a fixed effect without controlling for contemporaneous vacancy levels is misspecified. A further complication is that NCLT benches do not apply the IBC uniformly. Divergences in approach on contested issues, the treatment of related-party creditors, and the interpretation of timelines have been flagged repeatedly. As the IBC Brief published by IICA observed, “the divergences in approach among NCLT benches erode the integrity of the insolvency process.”9 For econometric research, this means that a resolution outcome at the Mumbai bench and one at the Hyderabad bench may not be comparable observations drawn from the same institutional process.

VI. Why This Is a Governance Failure, Not Just a Research Problem

It is tempting to treat data scarcity as a merely academic inconvenience. That framing is wrong. The same opacity that frustrates researchers frustrates the commercial actors whose confidence the IBC depends upon. DAKSH documented this directly: uncertainty about NCLT approval timelines has led successful resolution applicants to withdraw from plans that had lost value while awaiting tribunal approval, reducing the pool of investors willing to engage with IBC assets.10 India’s gross NPA ratio has fallen from 11.2 per cent in 2018 to a twelve-year low of 2.6 per cent by September 2024, partly on the strength of the IBC’s creditor discipline.11 But that improvement cannot fully translate into investment confidence so long as the adjudicating authority at the centre of the process remains empirically unaccountable. A tribunal that does not publish machine-readable orders, does not maintain stable URLs, and does not consistently define the metrics by which its own performance is measured is, in practical terms, a black box. Black boxes do not attract institutional capital. They repel it.

VII. Towards a Data Architecture That Works

The remedies are knowable. Based on what researchers who have worked with NCLT data have learned, the following interventions would materially reduce the barriers described above.

First, all NCLT orders should be published in machine-readable, text-searchable PDF format with structured metadata: case number, bench, date of admission, nature of order, and CIRP stage. This is a technical standard, not a governance reform, and is implementable within existing systems.

Second, each NCLT case should have a persistent, stable digital identifier. URLs should not change when portal systems are upgraded; historical orders should remain accessible at their original locations through permanent redirects.

Third, IBBI and the NCLT should jointly maintain a unified, openly accessible database of all CIRP proceedings across all benches. IBBI’s quarterly newsletters represent a partial step; they need to be converted into a structured, queryable data infrastructure.

Fourth, MCA, IBBI, and the NCLT should agree on common definitions for “recovery rate,” “resolution timeline,” and “case disposal,” with explicit and consistent treatment of excluded periods and interlocutory applications.

Fifth, the NCLT should publish monthly data on actual versus sanctioned member strength by bench, along with sitting hours derived from cause lists. This would allow researchers and policymakers to isolate capacity constraints from other determinants of delay.

VIII. Conclusion: The Cost of Not Knowing

The IBC is nearly a decade old. In that time, it has restructured or liquidated thousands of companies, returned hundreds of thousands of crores to creditors, and fundamentally altered how Indian banks manage credit risk. It has also, by most accounts, significantly underdelivered on its original promise of time-bound, creditor-friendly resolution.

Whether that underdelivery reflects institutional design flaws, resource constraints, jurisprudential uncertainty, or some combination of all three is precisely the kind of question empirical research ought to be able to answer. The barriers documented here mean that it cannot, at least not with the rigour the policy stakes demand.

The data problems at the NCLT are not technical footnotes. They are the mechanism through which institutional opacity converts into investor uncertainty, investor uncertainty into reduced resolution value, and reduced resolution value into larger creditor haircuts and a more fragile credit market. Until India’s insolvency tribunal system is empirically legible, its orders searchable, its metrics standardised, and its vacancies reported, the most important questions about how it performs will remain, frustratingly, unquantifiable.

1DAKSH, ‘Access to Justice Survey: National Company Law Tribunal’ (2023).
2Finance Research Group, IGIDR, IBC Dataset Documentation (2021).
3ICRA. ‘IBC CIRP Update: FY2025 Analysis.’ May 2025.
4Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India, CIRP Quarterly Newsletter (December 2024).
5Global Restructuring Review. ‘Evolving Jurisprudence and Regulatory Reforms: A Review of India’s Insolvency Landscape (2024–2025).’ March 2026.
6ICRA. ‘IBC CIRP Update: FY2025.’ May 2025.
7Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance, Report on Implementation of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (2023).
8DAKSH, Time and Motion Study of the NCLT (February 2024).
9IICA, IBC Brief: Divergences in NCLT Bench Interpretation (2022).
10Legal Business Online. ‘Death of a Tribunal: How India’s NCLT Fades in Influence.’ 2024.
11Global Restructuring Review. ‘Evolving Jurisprudence and Regulatory Reforms: A Review of India’s Insolvency Landscape (2024–2025).’ March 2026.

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